Recent glacial retreat in High Asia in China and its impact on water resource in Northwest China   总被引：48，自引：0，他引：48  

YAO Tandong    WANG Youqing  LIU Shiying    PU Jianchen    SHEN Yongping & LU Anxin  .Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research  Chinese Academy of Sciences  Beijing  China  .Cold  Arid Regions Environmental  Engineering Research Institute  Chinese Academy of Sciences  Lanzhou  China 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2004,47(12):1065-1075

There are about 46298 glaciers in the High Asiain China, the total glacial area is about 59406 km , andtotal glacial volume about 5590 km3. These glaciersmainly concentrate around the Himalayas Mountains,Nyainqentanglha Mountains, Kunlun Mountains,Karakoram Mountains and Tianshan Mountains. Theglaciers in the Tibetan Plateau are the major compo-nent of the glaciers in the High Asia in China. Theseglaciers extend north to the arid and desert regions,and become the main water resource in …  相似文献   

1960-2009年横断山区潜在蒸发量时空变化(英文)     

朱国锋  何元庆  蒲焘  王旭峰  贾文雄  李宗省  辛惠娟 《地理学报(英文版)》2012,22(1):71-85

Based on the meteorological data of 20 stations in the Hengduan Mountains region during 1961-2009, the annual and seasonal variation of potential evapotranspiration was analyzed in combination with the Penman-Monteith model. With the method of Spline interpolation under ArcGIS, the spatial distribution of potential evapotranspiration was presented to research the regional difference, and the correlation analysis was used to discuss the dominant factor affecting the potential evapotranspiration. The results indicated that the an-nual potential evapotranspiration showed a decreasing tendency since the 1960s, especially from the 1980s to 1990s, while it showed an increasing tendency since 2000. Regional potential evapotranspiration showed a rate of -0.17 mm a?1. Potential evapotranspiration in north, middle and south of the Hengduan Mountains exhibited decreasing trends over the studied period, and its regional trend was on the decline from southwest to northeast.  相似文献   

Study on mass balance and sensitivity to climate change in summer on the Qiyi Glacier, Qilian Mountains     

Sheng Wang  JianChen Pu  NingLian Wang 《寒旱区科学》2012,4(4):0281-0287

Based on the glacier mass balance and meteorological data of air temperature and precipitation on the Qiyi Glacier from June 30 to September 5, 2010, we used a degree-day mass balance model to simulate the change of mass balance during this period. Our results indicate that the current value of the mass balance is ?856.2 mm w.e. Subjected to the strong influences of air temperature and precipitation, the mass balance process can be divided into three stages: accumulating exiguously → melting intensively → melting exiguously. The variation trends of the mass balance according to the degree-day mass balance model and the observed values are similar and wholly reflect the spatial distribution characteristics of the glacier mass balance, which increases with the increase of altitude. Our experiment on climate sensitivity of the mass balance showed that mass balance was very sensitive to the change of temperature; air temperature is the key factor which influences mass balance; and a slight increase in precipitation will have a negligible effect on mass balance when the air temperature increases continuously.  相似文献   

Consequences of change and variability in sea ice on marine ecosystem and biogeochemical processes during the 2007–2008 Canadian International Polar Year program     

David G. Barber  Matthew G. Asplin  Tim N. Papakyriakou  Lisa Miller  Brent G. T. Else  John Iacozza  C. J. Mundy  M. Gosslin  Natalie C. Asselin  Steve Ferguson  Jennifer V. Lukovich  Gary A. Stern  Ashley Gaden  Monika Pu?ko  N.-X. Geilfus  Fei Wang 《Climatic change》2012,115(1):135-159

Change and variability in the timing and magnitude of sea ice geophysical and thermodynamic state have consequences on many aspects of the arctic marine system. The changes in both the geophysical and thermodynamic state, and in particular the timing of the development of these states, have consequences throughout the marine system. In this paper we review the ??consequences?? of change in sea ice state on primary productivity, marine mammal habitats, and sea ice as a medium for storage and transport of contaminants and carbon exchange across the ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere interface based upon results from the International Polar Year. Pertinent results include: 1) conditions along ice edges can bring deep nutrient-rich ??pacific?? waters into nutrient-poor surface waters along the arctic coast, affecting local food webs; 2) both sea ice thermodynamic and dynamic processes ultimately affect ringed seal/polar bear habitats by controlling the timing, location and amount of surface deformation required for ringed seal and polar bear preferred habitat 3) the ice edges bordering open waters of flaw leads are areas of high biological production and are observed to be important beluga habitat. 4) exchange of climate-active gases, including CO₂, is extremely active in sea ice environments, and the overall question of whether the Arctic Ocean is (or will be) a source or sink for CO₂ will be dependent on the balance of competing climate-change feedbacks.  相似文献   

奥运气象服务社会经济效益评估的AHP/BCG组合分析   总被引：8，自引：4，他引：4  

罗慧  谢璞  薛允传  姚东升  杨世刚 《气象》2008,34(1):59-65

综合应用层次分析法(AHP方法)和波士顿矩阵(BCG矩阵)相结合的思路,将气象服务用户群对服务效益评估这个复杂系统的思维过程数学化、系统化,建立了定量的气象服务期望度/满意度组合矩阵分析模型.以2007年"好运北京"青岛国际帆船赛调查问卷为例进行实证分析,从用户反馈信息来考核对用户需求的了解和满足、气象服务时间和时效、气象服务宣传服务手段、服务人员综合能力、预报准确度和用户未来意向等6个主要项目,应用该模型来较为客观地评估奥运气象信息服务当前的四象限结构现状,掌握和判断其所处位置,发现问题进行改进,并预测该项目的未来发展变化.  相似文献   

利用激光降水粒子谱仪研究雨滴谱分布特性   总被引：17，自引：6，他引：11  

濮江平  张伟  姜爱军  张卉慧  王可法 《气象科学》2010,30(5):701-707

利用Parsivel激光降水粒子谱仪2009年3—6月在南京观测获取雨滴谱资料,分类对各次降水过程雨滴谱进行Gamma分布拟合,对比分析了南京地区不同云系降水的雨滴谱分布特征以及Gamm a分布参数相关特性,并且讨论了"标准化"Gamma分布参数随雨强及雷达反射率因子的变化关系。结果表明:用Gamma分布拟合本次试验不同云系降水的雨滴谱分布精度都比较高;"标准化"的Gamma分布参数较Gamma分布参数更具有物理意义,且其参数μ和Dm与雷达反射率因子Z均具有较佳的对应关系,μ随Z的增大依次递减,Dm则随Z的增大呈指数型递增。  相似文献   

基于CLM3模拟的中国区域陆地水资源分析     

杜川利  刘晓东  WUWanli 《陕西气象》2008,(1):1-6

针对2007年7月30日发生在山西省南部的区域暴雨局部特大暴雨天气过程,利用多种资料,计算了多种物理量,分析了其演变特征,指出a)前期500 hPa阻塞高压和切断低压的形成和长期维持以及副热带高压的稳定加强、维持,是造成山西大范嗣降水和区域暴雨天气的特殊环流背景.b)特殊背景下形成的MCS是造成此次南部区域暴雨的直接影响系统,强烈而持续的水汽夹卷作用、对流层高层强抽吸作用使得MCS维持和加强.c)地形性辐合的存在使得垂直上升运动加强,而高位势不稳定能量的释放与低层迎风坡面上低云的相互作用,使得MCS不断发展,使雨强出现了3次强烈增幅.  相似文献   

2007年云南7次强降水过程的分析研究     

普贵明  鲁亚斌  周国莲  陈小华 《气象科学》2008,28(6):683-688

应用实测气象资料,结合卫星云图与多普勒雷达图像分析,对2007年7月19日到8月2日云南少有的7次强降水过程进行综合分析,结果表明:高低空的西南急流是重要的影响系统,西南急流的维持为持续性强降水过程提供了水汽、动量和不稳定能量的快速传递,高原切变线与西南急流的有利配置,是7次持续性强降水过程必不可少的条件;持续性强降水出现在500hPa水汽通量大值区和水汽通量散度辐合区;卫星云图上切变云带和副高外围云带在云南汇合,切变云带和副高外围云带维持、加强的过程与强降水落区的时空分布对应较好.多普勒速度图上零速度线长时间维持"S"型,风随高度顺时针旋转,说明高层有持续的暖平流.高低层不同性质的气流配合,有利于强降水产生.  相似文献   

山西2006年雨季天气气候特征分析     

姚彩霞  杨英  任璞  郭俊龙  郝建萍 《气象科技》2008,36(1):74-77

2005年6月17～24日,华南地区发生了连续多日的暴雨天气过程,其显著特征是存在着南北两条雨带,北支雨带(福建中北部)由准静止的梅雨锋造成,南支雨带(广东中东部)发生在锋前暖区之中,这种连续多日共存的双雨带现象引起了气象学家的广泛关注.为了探究锋面和锋前暖区暴雨的成因,加深这两类不同性质暴雨的认识,利用NCEP每6 h一次的1°×1°经纬度再分析资料以及华南地区加密观测的逐小时地面降水等资料,以此次连续多日维持的双雨带降水过程为例,详细分析了锋面附近与锋前暖湿区内暴雨系统的主要物理差异.结果发现:梅雨锋暴雨和锋前暖区暴雨不仅在中尺度雨团活动、系统动力结构、大气不稳定机制和大气加热结构等存在明显的差异,而且在水汽输送、中尺度环境以及与暴雨有关的垂直环流之间也存在着不同点,这些差异可能是造成锋前暖区暴雨难以模拟和预报的主要原因.  相似文献   

江苏省夏季最高温度定量预报方法   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

刘梅  濮梅娟  高苹  沈树勤  孙燕 《气象科技》2008,36(6):728-733

以江苏省徐州、南京、射阳3个探空站2002～2006年7～8月逐日观测资料为基础,选取了影响最高温度变化的因子,利用逐步回归方法建立了以徐州、南京、射阳3地为中心的区域预报模型,并对模型的回归效果和预报情况进行分析.剖析了其用于实际预报的合理性和可信度,同时与欧洲中期天气预报中心动力数值预报结果相结合,利用高斯权重插值方法将预报场的格点资料捕值到江苏各站点,通过PP法,完成了江苏省最高温度的定量预报.预报当天最高温度误差在1℃以下的概率为5O%左右,2℃以下概率在8O%左右,该方法可用于最高温度预报.  相似文献